Transfert de fardeau et incertitudes stratégiques : le cas des petits pays d’Europe centrale et de l’Est 

The article analyzes how small Central and Eastern European states, such as Bulgaria, Estonia, and the Czech Republic, are adapting to the prospect of a security burden shift from the United States to Europe. Facing the Russian threat, these countries adopt a pragmatic approach by increasing military spending, maintaining close ties with the United States, and participating in European defense initiatives. However, they remain reluctant toward any conception of European strategic autonomy that could weaken the transatlantic link or NATO. Estonia, for example, dedicates over 5% of its GDP to defense, while the Czech Republic and Bulgaria aim for more modest targets, between 3% and 3.5% by 2030-2032.

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L’angle mort nucléaire en Asie du Sud-Est : entre latences et pressions concurrentes 

The article explores the nuclear dynamics in Southeast Asia, a region often overlooked in proliferation debates. It highlights the tensions between regional powers such as China, the United States, and India, and local states that must navigate between deterrence, non-proliferation, and sovereignty. The author analyzes how nuclear latencies and geopolitical pressures influence the strategies of ASEAN countries, which seek to avoid an arms race while ensuring their security.

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Agir ou subir : la propagande russe comme multiplicateur de force au service de l’effort de guerre 

The article examines the role of Russian propaganda as a key tool in the hybrid war in Ukraine. The authors show how Moscow uses disinformation, social media, and geopolitical narratives to undermine Western cohesion, justify its military intervention, and mobilize its public opinion. They emphasize that this propaganda is not limited to Russia but also targets Russian diasporas in Europe and exploits internal divisions in Western countries. The article suggests ways to counter this influence, including strengthened transatlantic cooperation in information resilience.

 

Le paradoxe du transfert : Repenser les déséquilibres mondiaux 

The authors analyze global economic imbalances, particularly the transfer of wealth and technology from Western countries to emerging economies such as China and India. While this transfer is beneficial for global growth, it creates strategic dependencies, especially in critical supply chains, and weakens the industrial bases of advanced countries. The article proposes rethinking the rules of international trade to better protect Western interests while avoiding a complete decoupling from Asian economies.

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Le Japon face à l’arme nucléaire : Entre dissuasion élargie et dilemmes normatifs 

Japan, the only country to have suffered nuclear attacks, faces a strategic dilemma: how to reconcile its dependence on American deterrence through the "nuclear umbrella" with its commitment to nuclear disarmament? The article explores internal Japanese debates on the possibility of developing an autonomous nuclear capability, an option so far rejected due to normative constraints and geopolitical risks. The author emphasizes that Tokyo could opt for strengthening its conventional posture and increasing cooperation with the United States to compensate for the uncertainties of the post-Trump era.

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Net Zero Meets True North: Testing Canada's Arctic Energy Hubs Before They Are Built 

The article discusses Canada's energy and climate challenges in the Arctic, where the government plans to build energy hubs to exploit local resources such as oil, gas, and renewable energy. The authors emphasize the importance of testing these infrastructures before deployment to avoid excessive environmental and economic costs. They also analyze geopolitical risks, including Canadian sovereignty in the face of Russia and the United States, as well as Indigenous issues, such as the need to integrate local communities into energy projects.

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Why Canada Needs More Ships: RIMPAC 2026 

As RIMPAC 2026, the world's largest multinational naval exercise, approaches, the authors advocate for strengthening the Canadian fleet. They emphasize that Canada, due to its vast coastlines and international commitments, needs more ships to protect its interests in the Arctic, effectively participate in military alliances like NATO, and respond to emerging threats such as cybersecurity and hybrid warfare. The article criticizes delays in naval construction programs and proposes solutions to accelerate the modernization of the Canadian navy.

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Quels avantages ou risques en matière de sécurité avec l’IA ? 

The article reviews the opportunities and threats related to the use of artificial intelligence in national security. The authors identify advantages such as improved cybersecurity, predictive threat analysis, and optimization of military resources. They also highlight risks, such as automated disinformation, autonomous weapons, algorithmic biases, and technological dependence on private actors. They call for international regulation to frame the military use of AI and avoid an arms race in autonomous weapons.

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Collimateur – 11/08/26 

This edition of Collimateur covers several geopolitical topics, including tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean, with the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah and Iran's role. It also analyzes the implications of Donald Trump's re-election for NATO and European security. There is also a focus on Chinese strategies in Africa, particularly through investments in infrastructure and mining. Finally, the edition addresses energy issues in Europe, including dependence on Russian gas and possible alternatives.

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Collimateur – 04/08/26 

This edition of Collimateur covers the political crisis in Tunisia, where President Kais Saied is strengthening his authoritarian power. It also addresses the consequences of the assassination attempt on Donald Trump for the American election campaign and international reactions. An analysis of Russian strategies in Ukraine is also provided, focusing on the use of drones and long-range missiles. Finally, the edition deciphers trade negotiations between the EU and China, particularly regarding subsidies for electric vehicles.