Converting Defence Spending into Capability: Institutional Misalignment and Senior Military Leadership in Canada 

The article examines why Canadian defence spending converts so slowly and unevenly into usable military capability. The author argues that this is primarily a structural conversion problem: authority, accountability, and time horizons are misaligned across the political, military, financial, and industrial institutions responsible for defence. He introduces the distinction between "custodial" leadership (which preserves existing systems) and "builder" leadership (which redesigns the interfaces to generate new capacity). The author recommends that the government define the rebuilding phase before appointing the Chief of the Defence Staff, select a Chief with a documented record of system construction, and measure progress through trained strength, operational availability, and procurement milestones.

 

How Is Canada Ramping Up Its Drone Supply ? 

This article analyzes new Canadian initiatives aimed at accelerating the integration of drones and autonomous systems into the Canadian Armed Forces. The author examines the Defence Drone Initiative, the RED COBALT program, and the Uncrewed Systems Defence Innovation Secure Hub, designed to shorten the distance between military users and industry, accelerate procurement, and help Canada adapt to rapidly evolving technologies. He also explores the challenges of balancing the demand for cheap, mass-produced systems with the need for secure supply chains, the lessons drawn from Ukraine, the risks of reliance on foreign components, and whether these new approaches can overcome Canada's culture of risk aversion.

 

NATO’s Industrial Turn: What the Alliance’s New Defence Industrial Policy Means for Canada 

Since 2022, NATO has moved beyond setting spending targets and begun shaping defence industrial production in its member countries. The author argues that NATO's emerging industrial policy represents as much a market opportunity as a fiscal obligation for Canada. Canada's defence industry, built on smaller firms supplying components into Allied supply chains, is well positioned to exploit the openings created at the Ankara Summit, including the NATO Engine, the counter-drone marketplace, and the published demand signal. The article recommends that Ottawa concentrate its industrial effort on segments where Canada already competes (such as critical minerals processing), join multinational programs while their terms are still being set, define its 1.5% budgetary category, and use its position between the European and North American industrial tracks.

 

Russia’s Next Top General: Promotions in Russian Military Leadership 

The authors analyze the next generation of Russian military leaders being formed in the crucible of the war in Ukraine. While 70-year-old Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov remains in post thanks to the elimination of age limits, retirement looms for Russia's upper military elite. The article examines the critical roles played by service branch commanders, military district commanders, and their staffs, who directly influence the force groupings engaged in Ukraine. It explores the dynamics of promotion, succession, and decision-making within the pyramid of Russian general and flag officers, emphasizing that these leaders make the strategic and operational decisions affecting warfighting outcomes every day.

 

The Risks of Downplaying China’s Military 

The author warns against analyses that systematically downplay Chinese military capabilities and the possibility of an invasion of Taiwan. He acknowledges that an invasion would be extremely difficult and that the Chinese military has documented shortcomings, but argues that uncertainty about Chinese success is not the same as certainty of failure. He points out that China has spent years modifying civilian ferries to launch amphibious armored vehicles, developing specialized equipment to move forces ashore without conventional port facilities, hardening dozens of air bases, and rapidly expanding its missile forces. The article critiques the tendency to give more weight to Chinese shortcomings than to the capabilities Beijing has built to overcome them.

 

In the bear’s paw: How Europeans can loosen Russia’s grip on Belarus 

This publication analyzes Belarus's accelerated integration into Moscow's military strategy since the disputed 2020 presidential election and Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which turned the country into a rear-operating base. Since 2023, Russian deployments have positioned Belarus as a potential forward-operating base, with nuclear-capable systems, missile forces, and military infrastructure extending the Russian threat along the EU's eastern border. Europe wants to preserve Belarus as a strategic buffer, but sanctions and diplomatic isolation have not slowed Russian military entrenchment. The article proposes avenues to loosen Moscow's grip.

 

Managed disorder: The hard road to a modest peace with Russia after Ukraine 

This publication argues that the war in Ukraine will likely end in a ceasefire leaving Russia, Europe, and the United States locked in an open-ended, low-grade, chaotic confrontation. Europe has the highest stakes because it is closest to the conflict and would bear much of the cost should it escalate. The authors estimate that America will retain an interest in maintaining a certain level of engagement, and they explore the difficult road toward a modest peace with Russia after Ukraine, defining the contours of a managed order between the powers.

 

The price of silence 

Five years after the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan, the author poses an uncomfortable question: what has the policy of isolation pursued by most Western countries actually achieved? The article highlights that isolation has not produced the expected change on human rights, particularly for women, but has imposed a severe cost on ordinary citizens. Setting aside humanitarian aid, development assistance has dried up, and climate finance for one of the world's most climate-vulnerable countries remains entirely inaccessible. The article notes that non-engagement is quietly evolving, with migration negotiations between European governments and the Taliban signaling a more selective approach. It calls for a clear-eyed stocktake and an honest reassessment.

 

Les États-Unis et leur paranoïa stratégique [Rétro-Collimateur] 

For this summer rebroadcast, the Collimateur revisits American strategic identity and mindset through a long interview with Jonathan Guiffard, an independent researcher and PhD candidate at the French Institute of Geopolitics, Senior Fellow at the Institut Montaigne. His work focuses on the digital-space strategies of American intelligence and cyber actors. Building on twelve years in sovereign ministries, he has developed in-depth knowledge of diplomatic and military issues in West Africa and the Middle East, as well as expertise in public policy in this domain. The interview explores the strategic paranoia that structures American strategic thinking.

 

La bataille [Le Fil de l’épée – Unpopular Opinions #23] 

For this penultimate episode of the summer "hot takes" in military history by the Collimateur and the Fil de l'épée, Antoine Bourguilleau takes on the very concept of battle. The episode brings together André Loez, a historian specializing in the First World War and the 19th century, Antoine Bourguilleau, a specialist in military history and the history of wargaming in France, and Quentin Censier, a robotics engineer and creator of the YouTube channel Sur Le Champ. Together they revisit and debate the notion of battle, its historical evolutions and conceptual implications, in a format of asserted opinions and argued discussion.