How Orbán’s Fall Changed Serbia’s Political Future

The article examines how Viktor Orbán’s political downfall has altered the political environment surrounding Serbia and Aleksandar Vučić. For years, Orbán had been one of Belgrade’s most important allies within the European Union, defending Serbian interests while maintaining close relations with Russia. His departure therefore removes a key source of political protection for Vučić. The article also analyses Serbia’s model of “competitive authoritarianism”, based on political control over institutions, media and security structures. Links with Moscow, particularly in the intelligence field, remain significant. The new regional balance could nevertheless create more room for opposition forces and for actors advocating closer European integration.

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The Sahel at the Centre of Global Jihadism

The study examines the transformation of the Sahel into one of the world’s main centres of jihadist violence. Armed groups have expanded beyond Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger towards the coastal states of West Africa. This expansion has been accompanied by new forms of governance and significant organisational adaptation. Political changes resulting from military coups have also transformed regional security responses. The weakening or withdrawal of some Western partners has opened space for new security partnerships. The study also stresses the importance of local and community dynamics in understanding the persistence of violence. The Sahel has therefore evolved from a peripheral security space into a central arena of Africa’s geopolitical and security transformations. 

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Understanding Hydropolitical Dynamics: The Medog Dam on the Brahmaputra

Eugénie Stoclet analyses the geopolitical consequences of China’s Medog dam project on the Brahmaputra. The project is developing amid growing water stress, climate change and strategic rivalry between China and India. Beijing presents the dam primarily as an energy and development project, while India sees it as a potential threat to its water security. The study argues, however, that the dam should not be considered an independent cause of conflict. Rather, it acts as a revealer and accelerator of existing tensions over water, borders and regional power. Narratives about “water wars” themselves contribute to securitising and politicising the resource. The project therefore illustrates how major infrastructure can reshape regional power relations even without directly triggering armed conflict.

 

The Military Turn of Tech: Algorithms on the Battlefield

The study examines the increasingly close relationship between major technology companies and military institutions. After years of maintaining some distance from defence activities, Silicon Valley companies are now signing major contracts with the Pentagon. Google, Anthropic, Meta, Palantir and Anduril are among the companies involved in this transformation. In Europe, firms such as Mistral AI, Helsing and Quantum Systems are contributing to the emergence of a European defence-tech ecosystem. The authors point out that this is not entirely new, since Silicon Valley itself has historical roots in military funding. What is new is the speed and scale of the current shift, particularly around artificial intelligence. The trend raises important questions about technological sovereignty and democratic accountability, especially for Europe. 

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What Future for China’s Commercial Space Launchers?

China’s commercial space sector is developing rapidly and is increasingly capable of competing technologically. LandSpace’s successful recovery of the first stage of its Zhuque-3 launcher in August 2026 demonstrated the growing maturity of Chinese private launch companies. The sector emerged from the gradual liberalisation of the space-launch market in the mid-2010s, with provincial governments playing an important role. Beijing has since strengthened regulation while continuing to encourage commercial development. However, the market remains relatively narrow and heavily dependent on demand from large satellite constellations. Not all companies are therefore expected to survive in the medium term. China is consequently trying to develop a competitive commercial space ecosystem while retaining strong political control over the sector. 

 

Toll on the Strait of Malacca? Indonesia’s Initiative and the Maritime Order in the Indo-Pacific

Deniz Kocak analyses Indonesia’s proposal to introduce a transit fee for ships using the Strait of Malacca. The proposal raises significant legal, economic and strategic questions for the maritime order in the Indo-Pacific. The author argues that such a toll would conflict with international maritime law and the principle of freedom of navigation applicable to the strait. The initiative must also be considered in the context of growing strategic competition across the Indo-Pacific. The Strait of Malacca is one of the world’s most important routes for global trade and energy flows. Any change to its regime could therefore have international consequences. The paper also considers the implications of the issue for Germany’s Indo-Pacific policy. 

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Why the Canadian Rangers Matter to Arctic Sovereignty

The authors highlight the essential role of the Canadian Rangers in protecting and asserting Canadian sovereignty in the Arctic. Their permanent presence improves territorial awareness and strengthens surveillance across Canada’s northern regions. Operation NANOOK demonstrates how the Rangers complement the regular Canadian Armed Forces. Their local knowledge is particularly valuable in a vast environment characterised by difficult access and limited infrastructure. The Rangers also contribute to relations between the military and northern communities. Their activities support threat detection, local resilience and the signalling of Canadian presence. They therefore form an important component of a broader, whole-of-government approach to Arctic sovereignty and defence. 

 

How Canadian Universities Can Help Build a Stronger Army Reserve

John Walsh proposes using university infrastructure more effectively to strengthen the training capacity of Canada’s Army Reserve. During the summer, universities have accommodation, classrooms and services that could support reservist training. He proposes creating “Canadian University Reserve Training Nodes” without turning campuses into military facilities. The Army would retain command, instruction and military equipment, while universities would provide selected support infrastructure. Such cooperation could help reduce bottlenecks in the training system and allow more recruits to complete their qualifications. It could also help prepare Canada for a larger mobilisation in a crisis. The author nevertheless stresses the need to measure carefully the actual costs and additional training capacity generated by these partnerships. 

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Le Collimateur — Yemen/Red Sea: The Roots of the Houthi Machine

This episode examines the historical emergence of the Houthi movement and its transformation into a major security actor in the Red Sea. Alexandre Lauret retraces Yemen’s political history, its relationship with Saudi Arabia and the gradual rise of the Houthis. The discussion also examines the consequences of the Arab Spring and the civil war for the movement’s consolidation. Houthi attacks on maritime trade since 2023 have significantly increased the group’s strategic importance. Its relationship with Iran is another major factor in its political and military development. The episode shows how control or disruption around the Bab el-Mandeb gives the Houthis influence far beyond their territorial weight. 

 

Le Collimateur — How to Map the War in Ukraine

This episode explores the role of mapping and open-source intelligence in monitoring the war in Ukraine. Clément Molin explains how videos, satellite imagery and other open sources are collected, geolocated and verified to track developments on the battlefield. The Lyman offensive provides a case study illustrating the difficulties involved in identifying and confirming military movements. The discussion also addresses source reliability and the risks of propaganda or false territorial claims. New technologies make battlefield mapping more precise while also creating new analytical challenges. The episode ultimately demonstrates that maps have become an essential tool for understanding the operational dynamics of the conflict and assessing competing claims about territorial control.